TODAY the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) will be having its say on the way regional economies performed in 2012. It is an occasion which many in the region look forward to since the reports on regional economies allow analysts and other stakeholders to see just how good/bad these islands have been doing in what remains a brutal global crisis.
One important consideration expected from the review is what the Bank has been doing to improve its position following the downgrade by one of the international rating agencies.
Given all the information that has been coming through from time to time during 2012, it is fair to suggest that the majority of these territories – the Bank’s Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) – did not do much better than was the case in 2011.
The ones which did somewhat better would have been Guyana, Haiti and possibly Suriname, carrying on from the previous year; and to some extent Trinidad and Tobago, the Caribbean’s leading economy.
It remains a fact that the region continues to demonstrate slow growth or none at all, or even economic declines which must be a worry to all involved. The St. Lucian Prime Minister, Dr. Kenny Anthony, put his hands to the plough recently when he argued a case as to why his Government is unable to grant
the requested pay increase for public officers.
He pointed to fiscal issues facing nearly all of the sister Caribbean territories, including those doing better than others, who were faced with demands for pay increases from public officers.
What is really worrying is that these countries in the Caribbean continue to depend on an improved performance in the developed economies for sustained economic recovery in the region. As they do so, it appears that the big countries are also having a rough time getting their economies sorted out.
The distressing picture emerging from the United States is that the economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2012 was down, thereby putting hold on robust growth previously anticipated for 2013. Over in the United Kingdom there are fears that this country could enter a recession for the third time since 2009.
There is still uncertainty in Europe. Where does all of this leave the Caribbean?
Having for the most part engaged in conspicuous consumption during the recent boom years of pre-2008, many of the tourism dominated economies were not restructured when they should have been. At the time, they continued to focus on tourism without the recognition that peaks and troughs are regular features of the economic cycles. One day they would have to come to grips with a new set of economic downturns which had been taking place regularly since the early 1990s.
Like many publics across the Caribbean, we will be looking forward to hear what the CDB has to suggest ought to be the way forward. The recession or the depressed global, regional and local economic conditions have been with us since 2008. The Caribbean needs answers on how to get out of this rut.
It has to be noted that an improved Caribbean will redound to the benefit of the same CDB. We look forward to hearing from the Bank on these issues.
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